'Say it isn't so'

Recently I have seen quite a few people, usually recently DTC, posting to various groups that they have either just ‘crunched some numbers’ on their likely referral date or have seen or run someone else’s predictor and come up with dates of 2009 or 2010 or whatever– the post usually ends with a ‘please tell me it isn’t so!!!’.

As much as we’d all like to comfort these people (and ourselves), the thing is that none of us know – but wish I did.

While I am a rabid number cruncher myself, I always remind myself of the little disclaimer at the bottom of a financial prospectus 'past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance'. So while I do fill in time during the wait crunching numbers and coming up with new averages to apply, what the CCAA has done in the past is not necessarily indicative of their performance in the future.

What we do know is that for more than 12 months now the CCAA has not allocated full months of LIDs and some times very few LIDs per referral month. We have the official statement from the CCAA, in their change to eligibility criteria notification, to the effect that the number of applicants has been in excess of available children.

Until we see full months of LIDs being referred per referral month (cycle), the wait will not stabilise and it will continue to increase. For the wait to decline, more than one month of LIDs per referral months needs to be referred, each referral cycle.

What does the future hold in the short and medium term – well there is no way of predicting because we are not privy to all the factors that may 'drive' the number of referrals in the future. We don’t know:

• the number of files already logged in;
• how many people may be dissuaded by the possible length of wait and may withdraw their files and explore alternatives;
• how many children the CCAA might make available for Intercountry adoptions (and what impact such initiatives as the Blue Sky project – aimed at assisting medically frail abandoned children - may have); and
• any other number of factors.

There are indications that the number of files logged in during 2006 was down from the 'heady' months of 2005 but there is no way of knowing if this truly correct, until perhaps those months are referred (even then we don’t know what other factors might be at play).

There is likely to be a significant spike in files logged in prior to May 2007, as files are sent prior to the rule change – this was seen in the months prior to the introduction of the singles quota and US quota at the end of 2001.

Because unfortunately the new criteria may rule out a significant number of applicants and this may bring the number of applicants more in line with the number of children available for Intercountry adoption. As the number of applicants and available children approaches equilibrium, the wait should start to stabilise. So once the CCAA has processed the pre 1 May applications there should hopefully be an impact on wait time. However, there are by all accounts a lot of files to be processed before they can get to this point – like the implementation of the quotas in 2001, it will be many, many, MANY months before we see the 1 May 2007 rules having an impact on wait times.

In know that it is really difficult during the wait not to obsess on when the referral is going to happen (or in your darkest hours, if it is going to happen at all) – I know I did this first time round (and do still occasionally do). But no amount of stress from any of us is going to make it happen any sooner – if anything the only thing that it is going to do is negatively affect our health. Trust me, when you get that referral you need to be healthy.

As much as I want a referral sooner rather than later I am preparing myself for a long wait (even a long, long wait) – if it happens sooner ‘bonus’. It does mean that to some extent our lives are in a ‘holding pattern’ because of the uncertainty.

Trying to look at the glass half full, rather than a glass half empty – at least we are in the ‘queue’ (sorry for using a commercial term but you know what I mean) – which unfortunately many will not be able to join after 1 May 2007 - and each day that passes is one day closer.